Today is Black Friday – the day after Thanksgiving when retailers slash their prices in an all-out bid to attract shoppers and kick-start the festive season. But if you’re not out doing an early bit of Christmas shopping today you might be wondering whether it’s a good time to trade?

With both traditional retailers and tech giants like Amazon well positioned to take advantage of the additional income that will flow their way, it stands to reason that Black Friday could be a good day to be long the stock market. But how have stocks actually reacted on this date?

Should You Be Long Today?

We put together the chart below showing Black Friday S&P returns for the past 15 years, along with cumulative equity growth – take a look!

Over the period shown this holiday date has demonstrated a modest bullish tendency for the broader market, seemingly with large potential upside and very few large losing days. The sample incorporates both the recent sub-prime crash and the bear market and the bear market following the tech boom.

If you are trading today you may well be doing the same as millions of shoppers – looking for a bargain – at least you won’t have to queue in the cold to get one!

This article is for information only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Please keep in mind that future returns may not resemble historical ones, and that 15 data points is not generally considered to be a statistically valid sample size.

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