Market Outlook for 8th February 2016
The Chinese Forex Reserves announcement will start the week with a bang. Any outflow that is smaller than forecast will tend to support the idea that China has managed to control its outflows, and this should prove bullish for risky assets such as equities. A larger outflow, on the other hand, would likely stimulate further selling similar to what we saw at the start of last week. With confidence in the US economy having received a boost from the non-farms payroll data last week, both US retail sales and Yellen’s testimony to congress may also attract buyers.
Corporate news comes thick and fast next week, from all around the globe, with key reports from Rio Tinto, ARM Holdings, Rolls Royce and Twitter. Though the appetite of investors for risk was sluggish towards the end of last week, stocks may well make further gains as cash-rich fund managers begin looking for opportunities to purchase stocks in undervalued sectors.
Friday’s report will no doubt have caused many market participants to revise their outlook with regard to further rate hikes. Disappointing economic data and market uncertainty had led many investors to believe that the monetary policy outlined by the central bank last December may no longer be workable, and that a second rate hike in March was unlikely; the Fed now appears resolute in its plan.
This Week’s IPO Calendar
The IPO Calendar for the coming week contains some relatively big hitters, including Advanced Dsiposal Services, which previously filed under ADS Waste Holdings. Both Nordic Realty and Shimmick Construction failed once again to proceed with their IPOs, and neither are slated for the coming week.
| Company Name | Ticker | Shares | Price Range | Deal Size | Top 2 Underwriters |
| OTG EXP | OTG | 32.5 mil | $16.00 – $18.00 | $552 mil | Credit Suisse Morgan Stanley |
| Advanced Disposal Service | ADSW | 21.4 mil | $20.00 – $22.00 | $450 mil | Credit Suisse Deutsche Bank |
| AveXis | AVXS | 4.3 mil | $19.00 – $21.00 | $85 mil | Goldman Sachs Jefferies |
| Proteostasis Therapeutics | PTI | 3.9 mil | $12.00 – $14.00 | $50 mil | Leerink Parrtners RBC Capital Markets |
| Mapi-Pharma | MAPI | 3.1 mil | $15.00 – $17.00 | $50 mil | JMP Securities Maxim Group LLC |
This Week’s Reports & Market Events
This week’s expected major reports, data releases, and other market-moving events are listed below.
For a more detailed look at the stock market week ahead, take a look at our free Economic Calendar powered by ECONODAY. Click here to view our Articles pages for more market analysis and investment ideas.
Monday 8th February1am – China FX reserves (January): the forecast is for FX reserves to fall to $3.2 trillion, from $3.33 trillion. Market to watchs: China 300, Hong Kong HS50, high grade copper, AUD crosses, mining companies 9.30am – eurozone Sentix investor confidence (February): the consensus is for 8.8, the previous reading was 9.6. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses |
Tuesday 9th February7am – German trade balance and industrial production (December): the trade balance surplus is expected to widen to €20.8 billion from €20.6 billion. Industrial production is tipped to increase by 0.5% on a MoM basis, which compares with a 0.3% decline in November. YoY industrial production is anticipated to slip by 0.5%, from a 0.1% rise. Markets to watch: Germany 30, EUR crosses 9.30am – UK trade balance (December): the consensus is for the trade balance deficit to shrink to £2.9 billion from £3.17 billion. Markets to watch: GBP crosses, FTSE 100 3pm – US wholesale inventories (December): inventories are tipped to decline by 0.06%, which compares with the 0.3% fall in November. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 11.30pm – Australia Westpac consumer confidence (February): the previous reading came in at -3.5%. Market to watch: AUD crosses |
Wednesday 10th February9.30am – UK manufacturing production and industrial production (December): manufacturing production is anticipated to come in at 0.1% on a MoM basis, which compares with the November reading of -0.4%. The YoY reading is expected to be 1.72%, up from -1.2% in November. Industrial production is tipped to be increased by 0.13% on a MoM basis, up from a 0.7% decline in the previous reading. On a YoY basis, the forecast is for a 1.72% expansion, which compares with a contraction of 1.2%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses, FTSE 100 3pm – UK NIESR GDP estimate (3-month, January): the previous reading was 0.6%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses, FTSE 100 3.30pm – US crude oil inventories: the forecast is for 1 million barrels, down from 7.79 million barrels last week. Market to watch: US light crude |
Thursday 11th February1.30pm – US jobless claims: jobless claims are expected to rise by 1,000 to 286,000. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses |
Friday 12th February7am – German GDP (Q4, flash) and CPI (final, January): MoM growth is tipped to remain at 0.3% and YoY GDP is expected to fall to 1.7% from 1.8%. CPI is expected decrease from -0.1% to -0.8% MoM, and increase to 0.5% from 0.3% YoY. Markets to watch: Germany 30, EUR crosses 10am – eurozone GDP (Q4, flash): GDP is expected to fall to 0.2% from 0.3% MoM, but hold steady at 1.6% on a YoY basis. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses 1.30pm – US retail sales and core retail sales (January): MoM retail sales are expected to swing to 0.4% from a -0.1% decline in December, and anticipated to increase to 2.31%, up from 2.2% on a YoY basis. MoM core retail sales are tipped to increase by 0.25%, which compares with a 0.1% drop from the previous report. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 3pm – US Michigan consumer sentiment (February, preliminary): the forecast is for 91.94, down from 92. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses |
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The Market Outlook for Previous Weeks
▼ Market Outlook - 1st February
Market Outlook for 1st February 2016
Equity markets continued their recovery at a steady pace last week, supported by some stronger than anticipated earnings and the Bank of Japan’s surprise overnight move to implement negative interest rates.
Manufacturing PMI figures and Chinese data will likely dominate the coming week’s trading, and with no expected figure released for the latter there will be a potential for a surprise that may bring some volatility. As the Bank of Japan and the ECB press forward with their easing programs following the Fed’s rate hike, the Bank of England continues to sit on the fence, caught between divergent monetary policies; Thursday’s BoE rate decision could have significant impact on both the British Pound crosses and stock indices.
Midweek the oil inventories will give some direction to energy markets, and on Friday investors will be focused on US non-farm payrolls data as an indicator of economic strength following January’s correction.
This Week’s IPO Calendar
The IPO Calendar is looking fairly full for the coming week, although this is in part due to the delayed offerings of both Shimmick Construction and Nordic Realty Trust, both of which were delayed due to market conditions.
| Company Name | Ticker | Shares | Price Range | Deal Size | Top 2 Underwriters |
| BeiGene | BGNE | 5.5 mil | $22.00 – $24.00 | $127 mil | Goldman Sachs Morgan Stanley |
| Editas Medicine | EDIT | 5.9 mil | $16.00 – $18.00 | $100 mil | Morgan Stanley J.P. Morgan |
| Nordic Realty Trust | NORT | 5.0 mil | $15.00 – $15.00 | $75 mil | Wunderlich Securities Compass Point |
| Shimmick Construction Company | SCCI | 6.3 mil | $11.00 – $13.00 | $75 mil | FBR Capital Markets BB&T Capital Markets |
| PLx Pharma | PLXP | 3.8 mil | $17.00 – $19.00 | $68 mil | Raymond James Maxim Group LLC |
| Mapi-Pharma | MAPI | 3.1 mil | $15.00 – $17.00 | $50 mil | JMP Securities Maxim Group LLC |
This Week’s Reports & Market Events
This week’s expected major reports, data releases, and other market-moving events are listed below.
For a more detailed look at the stock market week ahead, take a look at our free Economic Calendar powered by ECONODAY. Click here to view our Articles pages for more market analysis and investment ideas.
Monday 1st February1am – China manufacturing PMI (January): 49.4 vs 49.6 expected, prior 49.7. 1am – China non-manufacturing PMI (January): 53.5, prior 54.4 – no expected given. 1.45am – Caixin China manufacturing PMI (January): 48.4 vs 48.1 expected, prior 48.2. 9am – eurozone manufacturing PMI (January, final): the report is tipped to drop to 52.3 from 53.2. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses 9.30am – UK manufacturing PMI (January): manufacturing is anticipated to fall to 51.8, from 51.9. Markets to watch: GBP crosses, FTSE 100 3pm – US ISM manufacturing PMI (January): the forecast is for 48.1, down from 48.2. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses |
Tuesday 2nd February8.55am – German unemployment change and unemployment rate (January): the unemployment change report is expected to show a decrease of 8000, from a drop of 13,000 in the previous month. The unemployment rate is tipped to remain at 6.3%. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses 9.30am – UK construction PMI (January): construction is anticipated to increase to 58.38, from 57.8. Markets to watch: GBP crosses, FTSE 100 10am – eurozone unemployment rate (December): the consensus is for unemployment to hold steady at 10.5%. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses |
Wednesday 3rd February12.30am – Australian building permits and trade balance (December): the forecast is for a 12.7% decline in building permits, from a 3.57% rise in November. The trade balance deficit is expected to widen to $AUD 2.98 billion from $AUD 2.9 billion. Market to watch: AUD crosses 1.45am – China Caixin services PMI (January): the services sector is expected to expand to 51.6 from 50.2. Markets to watch: high grade copper, AUD crosses, mining stocks 5am – Japan consumer confidence (January): the report is tipped to show an increase to 43.22 from 42.7 in December. Market to watch: JPY crosses 9am – eurozone services PMI (January, final): the consensus is for a fall from 54.2 to 53.6. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses 9.30am – UK services PMI (January): the services report is expected to drop to 55.48 from 55.5. Markets to watch: GBP crosses, FTSE 100 1.15pm – US ADP employment change (January): the consensus is for 246,000 jobs to be added, a decrease from the 257, 000 jobs added in December. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 3pm – US ISM non-manufacturing PMI (January): the manufacturing report is forecast to rise to 55.8, from 55.3. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 3.30 – US crude oil inventories: the previous report showed a stockpile of 8383K barrels. Market to watch: US light crude |
Thursday 4th February12pm – BoE inflation report, BoE interest rate decision, BoE asset purchase facility, and MPC voting breakdown. The forecast is for interest rates and the asset purchase facility to remain at 0.5% and £375 billion respectively. MPC members are anticipated to vote 8-1 to keep interest rates on hold, and vote 9-0 to hold the asset purchase scheme at £375 billion. Market to watch: GBP crosses 1.30pm – US jobless claims: the forecast is for an increase in the jobless rate from 278,000 to 281,000. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses |
Friday 5th February12.30pm – Reserve Bank of Australia statement: The statement will follow on from the interest rate decision on Tuesday. The relative strength of the Australian economy given the slowdown in China is likely to be mentioned. Market to watch: AUD crosses 1.30pm – US non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, hourly earnings and trade balance (January): the consensus is for 264,000, compared with 292,000 in December. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 5%. Average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.3% from 0.0% on a MoM basis but fall to 2.2% from 2.5% on a YoY basis. The trade balance deficit is tipped to widen to $42.5 billion from $42.37 billion. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses, gold |
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▼ Market Outlook - 25th January
Market Outlook for 25th January 2016
With market-wide volatility reaching fever pitch last week, equities and oil finally found some short term support from which to rally, with institutional buyers stepping in from 20th to back an impressive rebound following the ECB meeting. However, it can easily be argued that there has been no fundamental change in the circumstances that led to this correction, and many will be questioning whether the bullish price action towards the end of the week was merely a dead cat bounce.
Despite a grueling few weeks that has kept traders on their toes, the coming week has plenty in store and will likely bring further volatility regardless of whether or not the recovery holds.
Equities
Earnings season in the US will reaches its peak this week, with a total of 134 S&P500 companies due to report earnings. If some of the larger names such as Amazon and Apple come out ahead of expectations then this may further spur a recovery from the correction that has dogged the year so far.
With a risk-on attitude re-emerging, attentions have been somewhat distracted from worries over the slowdown in China’s economic, but investors would be well advised to keep a close eye on overnight trading in Asian markets as a measure of bullish sentiment.
Interest Rates
Mark Carney and other Bank of England representative will go before the Treasury Select Committee early this week, and will likely be asked to provide a perspective on the current market unrest and explain their policy decisions.
On Wednesday markets will be focused on the US Federal Open Market Committee’s announcement and policy decision, although no changes are anticipated and no news conference is scheduled, so it is expected that the policy statement will remain unaltered between now and March. This will allow the US central bank’s policy makers to further consider the ramifications of current market volatility and oil prices. Any evidence that the Fed is weakening its commitment to four rate hikes in 2016 though, may well weaken the dollar and unsettle investors confidence in the state of the US economy, causing a backslide in equity markets.
Commodities
Commodity traders have had another roller-coaster ride of a week, with crude prices finally finding a short term bottom at around $28 dollars per barrel on Friday. One of the most significant events of the coming week will be Wednesday’s US crude oil inventory, which will provide investors with a fresh data to gauge the supply demand balance.
Currencies
The US dollar has now closed higher for four consecutive weeks, but many are still questioning this conviction and drivers for this rather weak rally. However, over the coming week renewed interest around monetary policy with Wednesday’s Fed decision and statement could give rise to further strength from the currency, and if the recovery in equities and commodities fails, then ‘safe haven’ effect may provide further headwind.
The euro ended last week by falling against most of the major currencies, including the dollar and the pound, in the aftermath of Draghi’s statement. With Goldman Sachs predicting that Eurozone currency will end the year at lower value than the dollar, further moves to the downside can be expected in the coming week.
This Week’s IPO Calendar
This week’s IPO Calendar features three small caps, including Shimmick Construction, which was initially scheduled as the first offering of 2016 last Thursday, but was delayed due to market conditions.
| Company Name | Ticker | Shares | Price Range | Deal Size | Top 2 Underwriters |
| Nordic Realty Trust | NORD | 5.0 mil | $15.00 – $15.00 | $75 mil | Wunderlich Securities Compass Point |
| Shimmick Construction Company | SCCI | 6.3 mil | $11.00 – $13.00 | $75 mil | FBR Capital Markets BB&T Capital Markets |
| AmeriQuest | AMQ | 6.2 mil | $11.00 – $13.00 | $74 mil | Raymond James Stephens Inc. |
This Week’s Reports & Market Events
This week’s expected major reports, data releases, and other market-moving events are listed below.
For a more detailed look at the stock market week ahead, take a look at our free Economic Calendar powered by ECONODAY. Click here to view our Articles pages for more market analysis and investment ideas.
Monday 25th January9am – German IFO business climate (January): expected to fall to 107.9, from 108.7. Markets to watch: DAX, EUR crosses |
Tuesday 26th January2.45pm – US composite and services PMI (January, preliminary): composite expected to rise to 54.4 from 54, while services move up to 54.5 from 54.3. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 3pm – US consumer confidence (January): expected to rise to 96.8 from 96.5. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses |
Wednesday 27th January12.30am – Australian CPI (Q4) and NAB business confidence (December): QoQ inflation is forecast to fall to 0.48% from 0.5%, but is expected to rise to 2.1% from 1.5% YoY. Business confidence is expected to rise to 5.13 from 5. Market to watch: AUD crosses 7am – German GfK consumer confidence (February): consumer confidence is expected to fall to 9.2 form 9.4. Market to watch: Dax, EUR crosses 3pm – US new home sales (December): new home sales are forecast to increase by 3.1%, compared with the previous reading of 4.3% MoM, and are expected to rise to 505K from 490K YoY. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 3.30pm – crude oil inventories: the previous reading was 4 million barrels. Market to watch: US light crude. 7pm – Fed decision & statement: while this is not likely to be as exciting as the last one, it will still be vital given the moves we have seen in oil and in China. Markets to watch: all indices, FX |
Thursday 27th January9.30am – UK GDP (Q4, preliminary): growth is forecast to rise to 0.6% from 0.4% QoQ, but is expected to fall to 2% from 2.1% YoY. Markets to watch: GBP crosses, FTSE 100 1pm – German CPI (January, preliminary): inflation is expected to remain at -0.1% MoM, and fall to 0.2% from 0.3% YoY. Markets to watch: DAX, EUR crosses 1.30pm – US initial jobless claims and durable goods orders (December): jobless claims are forecast to fall to 291K from 293K. Durable goods are expected to rise to 0.31% from 0%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 11.30pm – 11.50pm – Japan inflation rate, unemployment rate and industrial production (December): inflation is expected to rise to 0.07% from -0.3% MoM, and is expected to rise to 0.32% from 0.3 YoY. Unemployment is expected to remain at 3.3%. Industrial production is expected is expected to rise to 0.37% from -0.9% MoM, and is expected to rise to 3.09% from 1.7% YoY. Market to watchs: Nikkei 225, yen crosses |
Friday 28th January6.30am – France GDP (Q4, preliminary): growth is expected to remain at 0.3% MoM and is expected to rise to 1.2% from 1.1% YoY. Markets to watch: CAC, EUR crosses 10am – eurozone CPI (January, flash): CPI is expected to fall to 0.1% from 0.2% YoY. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses 1.30pm – US GDP (Q4, first estimate) growth is expected to increase to 2.52% from 2% QoQ. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 1.30pm – Canada GDP (Q4, advance): the previous readings were 0.0% and -0.2% on a MoM and YoY basis respectively. Market to watch: CAD crosses 3pm – US University of Michigan consumer sentiment (January): consumer sentiment is forecast to rise to 93.3 from 92.6. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses |
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▼ Market Outlook - 18th January
Market Outlook for 18th January 2016
The Chinese stock market’s plummet continued unabated last week, coupled with further devaluation of the Yuan, weighing on equities worldwide and dragging the S&P500 to its lowest levels since August to lock in the worst start to a trading year in history. Nothing changed for commodities either, which resumed their precipitous nosedive with oil falling below $30 per barrel.
The coming week will keep investors on their toes and bring further volatility for intraday traders, with a steady stream of important data and indicators expected from financial centers worldwide.
Equities
As US earnings season gathers steam we will see plenty of blue chip companies report fourth quarter earnings in the coming week. Energy producers and contractors will be a key focus, with some companies such as Atwood Oceanics (NYSE:ATW) having taken the unusual step of preempting financial statements with confirmations of lower revenues and impairments. Several UK-listed miners, meanwhile, are expected to announce dividend cuts.
A common theme among commentators seems to be the suggestion that what we are witnessing is not the panic sale of a crash, but rather a structured re-pricing of the equity markets, having almost nothing to do with the fundamental value of companies, which remain sound, and everything to do with the external forces of monetary policy and macro-economics.
Interest Rates
Last week’s announcement from The Bank of England means that a 2016 rate rise is no longer a significant possibility for the UK. In a note to clients, Barclays analysts predicted “deflationary pressures and tighter financial conditions will prompt further ECB actions around mid-year. . . and delay lift-off by the Bank of England until Q4 2016”.
The Bank of Canada will become a focus on Wednesday, and with the recent pressure on commodity currencies there is rising talk of a rates cut, with current predictions vacillating between no change or a cut from 0.5% to 0.25%. The rates decision will come shortly before the US Oil Inventory.
Market consensus is that recent US data does not provide sufficient support for a further hike in March, but the Fed only this week shrugged off the recent rout in oil and equities, suggesting they may pursue the determined course of policy regardless.
Commodities
Global oil markets could demonstrate further volatility and hit new lows on Monday (despite the closure of US exchanges for Martin Luther King day) if the International Atomic Energy Agency signs-off on the lifting of nuclear sanctions against Iran over this weekend. The return of Iranian crude producers to the markets would further strengthen the OPEC region’s ability to crowd out US energy companies and further flood the market with supply.
Currencies
Forex traders will be looking for further signs of dollar strength over the coming week, with some analysts identifying a flight to safety in the emerging risk aversion trend (see John Kicklighter’s recent article for a full exploration of the Dollar haven phenomenon: US Dollar Slow to Respond to Risk Trends). The dollar was at its weakest against the rallying Euro, which will continue to attract longs along with the carry-focused Yen.
Short sellers have controlled the British Pound over the last week following the rates announcement, and if Tuesday’s CPI figures fall shy of the anticipated 0.13% year on year growth then this will further support current monetary policy and could send Sterling lower still. Similar indicators come from the Eurozone CPI data, which promise to be the key events for the currency markets this week.
This Week’s IPO Calendar
This week’s IPO Calendar features two small caps, Elevate Credit with an anticipated market cap of around $708 million and Shimmick Construction, expected to launch with a market cap of $181.5 million.
| Company Name | Ticker | Shares | Price Range | Deal Size | Top 2 Underwriters |
| Elevate Credit | ELVT | 3.6 mil | $20.00 – $22.00 | $76 mil | UBS Investment Bank Jefferies |
| Shimmick Construction Company | SCCI | 6.3 mil | $11.00 – $13.00 | $75 mil | FBR Capital Markets BB&T Capital Markets |
This Week’s Reports & Market Events
This week’s expected major reports, data releases, and other market-moving events are listed below.
For a more detailed look at the stock market week ahead, take a look at our free Economic Calendar powered by ECONODAY. Click here to view our Articles pages for more market analysis and investment ideas.
Monday 18th January4.30am – Japan industrial production (November, final): expected to rise 1.6% YoY from a 1.4% drop in October. Market to watch: JPY crosses *US markets closed for Martin Luther King Day* |
Tuesday 19th January2am – China GDP data (Q4, preliminary), retail sales (December): YoY rate expected to be 6.8%, just down from Q3’s 6.9%. Market to watch: Asian indices, AUD/USD, copper, FTSE mining stocks 7am –German CPI (December, final): expected to be revised to 0.3% from 0.4%. Market to watch: EUR crosses 9.30am – UK CPI (December): price growth forecast to be 0.13% YoY and 0.06% MoM. Market to watch: GBP crosses 10am – German ZEW (January): economic sentiment index to rise to 19.6, current conditions to hold at 55. Market to watch: EUR crosses 10am – eurozone CPI (December, final): YoY rate to stay at 0.2%, core to stay at 0.9%. MoM to rise to 0.1% from -0.1%. Market to watch: EUR crosses |
Wednesday 20th January9.30am – UK unemployment & wage data: December claimant count to fall to 2900 from 3900 in November, while rate moves to 5.1% from 5.2%. Average earnings (inc bonus) to rise 2.3% in November from 2.4% in October. Market to watch: GBP crosses 1.30pm – US CPI, housing starts & building permits (December): core inflation to rise 2% YoY, in line with November, while headline inflation increases by 0.6% YoY from 0.5%. Housing starts to increase to an annual rate of 1.15 million, while building permits drop back to 1.28 million. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses 3pm – Bank of Canada rate decision (January): given the fall in oil prices of late, talk is rising of a cut to interest rates, but current expectations are for rates to hold at 0.5%. Market to watch: CAD crosses 3.30pm – US crude inventories: oil prices have been responding heavily to this number of late, with this week’s figure expected to see a drop of 900,000 barrels. Market to watch: Brent, US light crude 11.30pm – Australia Westpac consumer confidence (January): index expected to rise to 100.9 from 100.8. Market to watch: AUD crosses |
Thursday 21st January12.45pm – ECB decision (press conference @ 1.30pm): recent minutes revealed a clear split on whether to boost stimulus. Whether the doves prevail this time remain to be seen. Market to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses 1.30pm – US initial jobless claims: forecast to edge lower to 283K from 284K in the preceding week. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses 3pm – eurozone consumer confidence (January, flash): confidence expected to fall, with the index moving to -6.3 from -5.7. Market to watch: EUR crosses |
Friday 22nd January8.30am – German mfg PMI (January, preliminary): expected to fall to 53.1 from 53.2. Market to watch: EUR crosses 9am – eurozone mfg PMI (January, preliminary): activity forecast to rise to 53.4 from 53.2. Market to watch: EUR crosses 9.30am – UK retail sales (December): UK consumer spending expected to fall 0.15% MoM and rise 5.1% from 5% YoY. Market to watch: GBP crosses 1.30pm – Canada inflation data (December): price growth expected to be 0% MoM, from -0.1% in November, while YoY growth edges down to 1.36% from 1.4%. Market to watch: CAD crosses 2.45pm – US mfg PMI (January, preliminary): index forecast to rise to 52.1 from 51.2. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses 3pm – US existing home sales (December): sales forecast to be 4.7 million for the year overall, from 4.76 million in November. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses |
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▼ Market Outlook - 11th January
Market Outlook for 11th January 2016
Despite expectations of a quiet start to the year, the surprise news that China was turning off the (only recently installed) circuit breaker on its exchanges, implemented to halt catastrophic crash-like declines by limiting prices moves in any given time period, wreaked havoc on equity markets toward the end of last week. With markets still jittery and no widespread consensus about how US and European markets should reprice in light of this change, and a more substantial roster of data due, the coming week could well see this volatility spread to other markets.
With all eyes on China, the trade balance data releases on Wednesday could make a bigger splash than it ought; both Asian equity indices and mining stocks in particular could be movers, and the commodity currency pairs may also become active if figures differ from the anticipated $1.1billion drop in surplus. US crude inventory is also due this same day. Probably the most significant US data release will be Thursday’s jobless claims, which will provide some insight into the ongoing impact of December’s monetary policy in terms of both wage inflation and the country’s economic strength.
Over the coming week we’ll start to see figures from the Christmas trading period coming in from retailers. US earnings get underway with Banks and Alcoa leading the pack. Friday brings the US Retail Sales data, expected to rise 0.3% month on month – as well as the equity indexes, look to see reaction in the major USD crosses.
Investors will closely scrutinize the Bank of England statement (and voting numbers) on Thursday for indications of a shift in European monetary policy towards the Fed’s deflationary measures. Kathy Lien sets out some detailed consequences of China’s Yuan easing policy in terms of a further tightening from the Fed in March in this article: China’s 2016 Yuan Policy.
This Week’s Reports & Market Events
This week’s expected major reports, data releases, and other market-moving events are listed below.
For a more detailed look at the stock market week ahead, take a look at our free Economic Calendar powered by ECONODAY. Click here to view our Articles pages for more market analysis and investment ideas.
Monday 11th January3pm – Labor Market Conditions Index |
Tuesday 12th January5am – Japan consumer confidence (December): expected to fall to 42.3 from 42.6. Market to watch: Nikkei 225, yen crosses 9.30am – UK industrial & mfg production (November): YoY mfg output to fall by 0.4%, while industrial output rises 1.5% YoY. Market to watch: GBP crosses |
Wednesday 13th January2am – China trade balance (December): expected to see surplus drop to $53 billion from $54.1 billion. Market to watch: Asian indices, AUD/USD, copper, FTSE mining stocks 10am – eurozone industrial production (November): expected to rise 1.7% YoY from previous 1.9% increase. Market to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses 3.30pm – US crude inventories: forecast to rise by 500,000 from last week’s drop of 5 million. Gasoline stockpiles to rise by 3.3 million from previous rise of 10.58 million. Market to watch: Brent & US light crude 7pm – Fed Beige Book: this survey of economic conditions in the US will help gauge the current strength of the recovery. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses |
Thursday 14th January12.30am – Australian employment data (December): unemployment rate to hold at 5.8%, while the number of employed falls by 1600 from an increase of 71,400 a month earlier. Market to watch: AUD crosses 12pm – BoE decision & statement (January): no change to rates expected, watch for any change in voting numbers on rate increases from current 1/9. Market to watch: GBP crosses 1.30pm – US initial jobless claims: expected to rise to 278K for the week. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses |
Friday 15th January10am – eurozone trade balance (November): surplus expected to fall to €23.5 billion from €24.1 billion. Market to watch: EUR crosses 1.30pm – US retail sales, PPI (December): sales forecast to rise 0.3% MoM and 1.65% YoY. Producer prices expected to rise 0.2% MoM and fall 0.8% YoY. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses 3pm – US Michigan consumer confidence (December, preliminary): expected to drop to 91.6 from final November reading of 92.6. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses |
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▼ Market Outlook - 4th January
Market Outlook for 4th January 2016
2015 ended as was to be expected, with thin volumes and little volatility, as most markets traded within accepted areas of fair value. Concerns about China’s economic slowdown and the deflationary pressures it brings, lurching oil prices, and further loosening of monetary policy in the Eurozone, will of course carry over into 2016. The current long term outlook is undoubtedly characterized by divergence; regional, sector, and monetary policy divides in the global economy are widening.
The new trading year gets off to a fairly quiet start, with no scheduled IPOs and little in the way of corporate data.
The week starts with a slew of manufacturing PMIs from countries worldwide, and the dollar may provide a bullish reaction to Wednesday’s International Trade figures if the deficit is smaller than the consensus data (currently $-44.4 billion). Wednesday’s FOMC minutes might provide further insight into the thinking that underpinned December’s interest rate rise, although it is unlikely that they will unsettle equities markets unless they also give significant hints as to the Fed’s plans for the coming months.
A noteworthy observation has emerged from JP Morgan; analysts on the bank’s Multi-Asset Solutions team have been been drawing attention to what they claim is a disconnect between the Fed’s opinion of what a rate hike might look like, and what the market expects and has priced in. The chart below highlights this expectation gap:
Data Source: Bloomberg, US Federal Reserve, JP Morgan Asset Management
The chart shows that according to the Fed funds dot plot there could be four interest rate hikes in 2016; however, the market currently expects only two. This gap between the Fed’s forecasts and the market outlook will have to close at some point which could lead to further volatility in risk assets in 2016.
If, rather like commodities, you’re struggling to motivate yourself to get going after the holidays, take a look at this great post from Josh Brown over at The Reformed Broker: Are You On A Mission?
This Week’s Reports & Market Events
This week’s expected major reports, data releases, and other market-moving events are listed below.
For a more detailed look at the stock market week ahead, take a look at our free Economic Calendar powered by ECONODAY. Click here to view our Articles pages for more market analysis and investment ideas.
For the start of the New Year, be sure to update your calendars for 2016 with holiday closure dates for the major exchanges:
Monday 4th January1.45am – Caixin China manufacturing PMI (December): Manufacturing is expected to rise to 49 from 48.6. Markets to watch: high grade copper, AUD crosses, mining companies 8.50am – France manufacturing PMI (December, final): Manufacturing is expected to remain at 51.6. Markets to watch: France 40, EUR crosses 8.55am – German manufacturing PMI (December, final): Manufacturing is expected to remain at 53. Markets to watch: Germany 30, EUR crosses 9am – eurozone manufacturing PMI (December, final): Manufacturing is expected to remain at 53.1. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses 9.30am – UK manufacturing PMI (December): Manufacturing is expected to rise to 53 from 52.7. Markets to watch: GBP crosses, UK 100 1pm – German CPI (December): Inflation is expected to tick up by 0.2% compared with a 0.4% increase last month. Inflation is expected to rise to 0.6% from 0.4% on a yearly basis. Markets to watch: Germany 30, EUR crosses 3pm – US ISM manufacturing PMI (December): Manufacturing is expected to rise to 49 from 48.6. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses |
Tuesday 5th January8.55am – German unemployment change (December): Unemployment is anticipated to fall by 8000, the previous reading was a decline of 13,000. Markets to watch: Germany 30, EUR crosses 9.30am – UK construction PMI (December): Construction is estimated to increase to 56 from 55.3. Markets to watch: GBP crosses, UK 100 10am – eurozone CPI (December): CPI is tipped to rise from 0.2% to 0.4%. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses |
Wednesday 6th January1.35am – Japan services PMI (December): Services are expected to expand to 52.54 from 51.6. Markets to watch: yen crosses, Japan 225 1.45am – Caixin China services PMI (December): The service sector is expected to expand to 52.38 from 51.2. Markets to watch: China 300, Hong Kong HS50 8.50am – France services PMI (December, final): Services are expected to remain unchanged at 50. Markets to watch: France 40, EUR crosses 8.55am – German services PMI (December, final): Services are anticipated to remain unchanged at 55.4. Markets to watch: Germany 30, EUR crosses 9am – eurozone services PMI (December, final): Services are expected to remain unchanged at 53.9. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses 9.30am – UK services PMI (December): Services are expected to drop to 55.8 from 55.9. Markets to watch: GBP crosses, UK 100 1.15pm – US ADP employment change (December): Employment is tipped to fall to 194,000 from 217,000. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 1.30pm – US trade balance (December): the budget is expected to widen to $44 billion, from $43.89 billion. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 2.45pm – US services PMI (December, final): Services are anticipated to expand to 55.8 from 53.7. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 3pm – US ISM non-manufacturing (December): Traders are expecting a reading of 56, up from 55.9. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 3pm – US factory orders (November): Orders are expected to drop by 0.4%, compared with a 1.5% rise in October. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 3.30pm – US crude oil inventories: Stock piles are expected to come in at -700K, compared with last week’s 2629K. Market to watch: US light crude |
Thursday 7th January7am – German factory orders (November): Orders are expected to increase by 0.2% on a monthly basis, from a 1.8% increase in October. Orders are tipped to rise by 1.2% on a yearly basis, compared with a 1.4% decline in October. Markets to watch: Germany 30, EUR crosses 10am – eurozone unemployment (November): Unemployment is expected to hold steady at 10.7%. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses 10am – eurozone retail sales (November): Retail sales are anticipated to rise by 0.2% on a monthly basis, compared with a 0.1% fall in October. Retail sales are tipped to rise by 2% on a yearly basis, compared with a 2.5% increase in October. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses 1.30pm – US jobless claims: Jobless claims are expected to come in at 273,000. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses |
Friday 8th January12.30am – Austalia retail sales (November): Retail sales are expected to rise by 0.4% compared with a 0.5% rise in October. Market to watch: AUD crosses 9.30am – UK trade balance (November): The trade deficit is expected to contract to £2.5 billion from £4.1 billion. Markets to watch: GBP crosses, UK 100 1.30pm – US non-farm payrolls and unemployment (December): Payrolls is tipped to fall to 200,000 from 211,000. Unemployment is expected to remain at 5%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses, gold 1.30pm – Canada unemployment (December): Unemployment is expected to remain at 7.1%. Market to watch: CAD crosses |
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▼ Market Outlook – 27th December
Market Outlook for 27th December 2015
Once again, the financial week ahead is very quiet due to the holidays, and in the absence of any major unexpected news will trade largely on sentiment.
Yet the scant three trading days of coming week will in some sense be pivotal, with the S&P500 trading barely positive on the year and many other indices in the red, many investors will be hoping to see a more positive tone set for 2016 in the next few trading sessions. Only tech stocks have had anything resembling a good year. Financials may be one sector to keep a close eye on over the coming months, as they ought to benefit from the recent rates rise.
Tuesday will bring the US consumer confidence data released, which may motivate indices and the dollar forex crosses, and Wednesday sees the release of the crude oil inventory figures, which are expected to rise by around 600,000 barrels. Be aware that due to the light volumes and potential lack of liquidity, any figures much different from those anticipated may well bring some considerable volatility. Experienced traders will have a plan in place to manage such whipsaw trading sessions, even if it just means flattening positions and waiting on the sidelines.
Many market participants will be taking time over the holidays to review their trading performance – take a look at the results of this survey on Investor Resolutions for 2016 to see what others are focusing on.
This Week’s Reports & Market Events
This week’s expected major reports, data releases, and other market-moving events are listed below.
For a more detailed look at the stock market week ahead, take a look at our free Economic Calendar powered by ECONODAY. Click here to view our Articles pages for more market analysis and investment ideas.
Before the end of year, be sure to update your calendars for 2016 with closed dates for the major exchanges:
NYSE Holidays 2016 Schedule
CME Holiday Schedule 2016
Monday 28th DecemberMarkets closed |
Tuesday 29th December1.30pm – US Conference Board consumer confidence (December): November’s reading was 90.4. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses |
Wednesday 30th December3pm – US pending home sales (November): October’s figures saw a rise of 0.2% MoM and 3.9% YoY. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses 3.30pm – US crude inventories: expected to rise by 600,000 barrels. Market to watch: US light crude |
Thursday 31st December1.30pm – US initial jobless claims: expected to be 274K. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses 2.45pm – US Chicago PMI (December): expected to rise to 50 from 48.7. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses |
Friday 1st JanuaryMarkets Closed |
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▼ Market Outlook – 21st December
Market Outlook for 21st December 2015
The market outlook for the next two weeks over the holiday season is very thin. There’s minimal economic data due, although Monday’s consumer confidence figures for the eurozone could move the EUR/USD currency pair, and GDP numbers are also expected from the U.S. and the U.K. on Tuesday and Wednesday. The latter is anticipated to see a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.5%
Probably the most significant economic event of the year, the Federal Reserve’s long anticipated decision to curb credit and increase interest rates last week, resulted in a brief rally in U.S. stocks followed by several days of falling prices (putting something of a damper on the ‘Santa Rally’ effect this year). Less jittery it seems, was the bond market, suggesting that it had been better able to price in the rate hike prior to the announcement.
Historically, stocks prices have tended to fall in the immediate aftermath of an interest rate increase, only to rise on the back of reinvigorated investor sentiment and confidence in the economy over the coming quarters. For the next few weeks, however, in the absence of some unexpected event or crisis, the markets can be expected to trade on sentiment and with very light volume.
This Week’s Reports & Market Events
This week’s expected major reports, data releases, and other market-moving events are listed below.
For a more detailed look at the stock market week ahead, take a look at our free Economic Calendar powered by ECONODAY. Click here to view our Articles pages for more market analysis and investment ideas.
Before the end of year, be sure to update your calendars for 2016 with closed dates for the major exchanges:
NYSE Holidays 2016 Schedule
CME Holiday Schedule 2016
Monday 21st December3pm – eurozone consumer confidence (December, flash estimate): expected to see an improvement, as the index rises to -5.6 from -5.9. Market to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses |
Tuesday 22nd December1.30pm – US GDP (Q3, final): no change expected from the current 3.9% figure. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses 3pm – US existing home sales (November): forecast to hit an annual rate of 5.3 million. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses |
Wednesday 23rd December9.30am – UK GDP (Q3, final): expected to see an increase of 0.5% QoQ, down from the previous 0.7% estimate, while the YoY rate is revised to 2.3% from 2.4%. Market to watch: GBP crosses 1.30pm – US durable goods order (November): orders are forecast to fall overall by 0.73% MoM, with orders excluding transport down 0.66%. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses 1.30pm – Canadian retail sales (October): forecast to rise by 0.5% MoM and 1.885 YoY. Market to watch: CAD crosses 3pm – US new home sales (November), Michigan consumer confidence (December, final): home sales forecast to increase by 10.7% MoM, to an annual rate of 495K. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses 3.30pm – US crude inventories: stockpiles expected to fall by 100,000 barrels over the week. Market to watch: US light crude |
Thursday 24th December1.30pm – US initial jobless claims: expected to be 272K. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses 11.30pm – Japan inflation and unemployment (November): inflation expected to rise by 0.4% YoY, while unemployment increases by 3.2% in the month. Market to watch: Nikkei 225, Yen crosses |
Friday 25th DecemberMarkets Closed |
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▼ Market Outlook - 13th December
Market Outlook for 13th December 2015
The event that many traders have spent the entire year speculating about and preparing for finally arrives this week – the Federal Reserve is expected to raise US interest rates for the first time in nine-and-a-half years.
If you’re struggling to make sense of the overwhelming amount of analysis and commentary surrounding this event, in which the Fed would seek to curb inflation and the expansion of credit in the US economy while the rest of the world is still immersed in quantitative easing, then here are some key points to focus on and consider when planning your strategies around the announcement:
- Though widely anticipated (as of Friday afternoon Fed funds futures were pricing in about an 81% probability of a move in the region of around 25 basis points), it is by no means certain that Ms Yellen will announce a rise in rates on Wednesday. This might throw more of a curve-ball and elicit a stronger reaction than a positive announcement, which many believe is now already priced in to the market.
- A rise in interest rates is fairly inevitable in the near future, as sustained low rates are considered by policy makers to be likely to result in a further credit bubble. Delaying the rate hike further may lead to several increases in 2016 falling hot on one the heels of one another.
- The main arguments for delaying a hike at the present time revolve around rapidly falling commodity prices. Both precious metals and energies have been severely hit. A tightening of the Fed’s policy may further the rout in Gold and Oil, both of which are priced in dollars.
- Although a rate increase may cause a further decline in stocks, over the medium to long term equity markets have historically rallied post increases, with investors feeling reassured that the US economy has sufficient strength to withstand higher borrowing costs. If you’re considering buying into any short term weakness, take a look at our article on strategies for trading pullbacks in trends.
While news traders and scalpers may want to try and capitalize on the increased volatility to be expected following the announcement, longer term traders may benefit from positioning themselves following the market’s initial reaction. Friday is also quadruple witching day, and may contribute to sustained volatility into the end of the week.
If a Fed-induced sell-off drags your portfolio down this week, keep in mind that we’re approach what has historically been the most bullish weeks of the year – The Santa Rally – Stock Market Returns at Christmas.
This week also sees a French election on Sunday, as well as Chinese data that could support growing speculation that the country’s central bank policy will shift towards a looser peg between its currency and the US dollar.
We’ll also have CPI figures from the UK and US on Monday and Tuesday, along with the Oracle and Carnival closing out the US earnings season, and lots of Eurozone data that may support a continued rally in the EUR/USD commodity pair, compounded by the effect of the Fed announcement on the dollar.
IPOs due this week are Pulte Acquisition (PLTEU) and Yirendei (YRD), each of which are expected to price around $10 per share.
This Week’s Reports & Market Events
This week’s expected major reports, data releases, and other market-moving events are listed below.
For a more detailed look at the stock market week ahead, take a look at our free Economic Calendar powered by ECONODAY. Click here to view our Articles pages for more market analysis and investment ideas.
Monday 14th December11.50pm – Japan Tankan mfg & non-mfg index (November): expected to see manufacturing activity fall, with the index dropping to 11 from 12, while non-manufacturing activity drops, as the index falls to 23 from 25. Market to watch: Nikkei 225, Yen crosses |
Tuesday 15th December12.30am – RBA meeting minutes: watch for further discussions of monetary policy. Market to watch: AUD crosses 9.30am – UK CPI (November): core inflation expected to rise by 1.09% YoY, while overall inflation rises 0.4% YoY and 0.05% MoM. Market to watch: GBP crosses 10.00am – German ZEW (December): current conditions index expected to rise to 54.8 from 54.4, while the economic sentiment index increases to 15.1 from 10.4. Market to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses 1.30pm – US CPI (November): core prices forecast to rise by 1.9%, in line with October, while headline prices expected to rise 0.3% YoY from 0.2%. Market to watch: USD crosses |
Wednesday 16th December8.00am – 9am – French, German, eurozone mfg PMI (December, flash): these are expected to show modest increases over the previous month, potentially providing support for the euro. Market to watch: EUR crosses 9.30am – UK unemployment & wage data: the November claimant count is expected to rise by 1900, from 3300 last month, while the unemployment rate ticks up to 5.5% for October, from 5.3% in September, average earnings expected to rise by 2.7% in October from 3% in September. Market to watch: GBP crosses 10am – eurozone inflation (November, final), trade balance (October): core prices forecast to have risen by 0.9%, while overall inflation rises by 0.1% YoY. Trade balance expected to see surplus rise to €23.1 billion from €20.5 billion in September. Market to watch: EUR crosses 1.30pm – US housing starts & building permits (November): building permits forecast to rise by 4% MoM, while housing starts to fall 9% MoM. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses 2.45pm – US mfg PMI (December, flash): the first estimate is forecast to show an increase in activity, with the index rising to 53.26 from 52.8. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses 3.30pm – US crude inventories: after last week’s drop, stockpiles expected to rise by 300K. Market to watch: US light crude 7pm – Fed interest rate decision: the big moment finally arrives, with the Fed finally expected to raise rates to 0.5% from 0.25%. Watch for further clues about the future path of policy in the statement and press conference. Market to watch: all major indices, FX crosses, commodities 11.50pm – Japan trade balance (November): this is forecast to show a deficit of Y294 billion, from a Y111 surplus in October. Market to watch: Yen crosses |
Thursday 17th December9am – German IFO (December): business climate index to hold at 109, and expectations index to remain at 104.7. Market to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses 9.30am – UK retail sales (November): consumer spending forecast to rise 0.4% MoM from a 0.6% fall in October. Market to watch: GBP crosses 1.30pm – US initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed (December): claims to fall to 279,000 from 282,000, while the Philly Fed index rises to 2.9 from 1.9. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses |
Friday 18th December4am – BoJ interest rate decision: rate to stay unchanged at 0%, while watch for any commentary on changes to policy. Market to watch: Nikkei 225, Yen crosses 1.30pm – Canadian CPI (November), retail sales (October): price growth expected to be 1.06% YoY and 0.11% MoM, while core prices rise 2.1% YoY. Retail sales to rise 1.88% YoY and 0.5% MoM. Market to watch: CAD crosses 2.45pm – US services PMI (December, flash): activity expected to increase, with the index rising to 57.1 from 56.1. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses |
▼ Market Outlook - 2nd November
STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK
Market Week Ahead for 2nd November 2015
October has been a month of strong performance for equities, with many US markets now trading back near the highs that preceded the August selloff. Whether or not this strength continues throughout the fourth quarter remains to be seen, but November should be an interesting month and the coming week is a busy one.
On the economic front we may start to see some of the impact of the recent Chinese rates cut with the PMI figures released this week, and certainly any signs of improvement here will help to alleviate concerns about the world’s largest economy. Federal Reserve rates remained unchanged, but amendments to the statement seem to suggest that December could once again be a possibility for interest rate rises. Nevertheless, there will need to be a considerable improvement in the data before the market really begins to think more seriously about a move at the final meeting of the year. The ECB has also hinted at further quantitative easing in December, but the Euro has struggled to push through the resistance at $1.15 so far this year, and Gold is at risk of making new lows.
For those attempting to ascertain in which areas the economy is still advancing the worldwide PMIs for both service and manufacturing due to be reported this week will provide plenty of data to comb through.
Corporate numbers continue to come in from the UK (Associated British Foods and Imperial Tobacco being the two big hitters to watch for, their shares recently trading at all time highs), while Facebook will be the last of the major US names to report earnings.
One area that remains remarkably quiet this week is the IPO calendar – there are no initial public offerings scheduled for this coming week.
This Week’s Reports & Market Events
This week’s expected major reports, data releases, and other market-moving events are listed below.
For a more detailed look at the stock market week ahead, take a look at our free Economic Calendar powered by ECONODAY. Click here to view our Articles pages for more market analysis and investment ideas.
Monday 2nd November1.45am – China Caixin manufacturing PMI (October): previous reading 47.2, any improvement will help bullish sentiment. Market to watch: Asian indices, AUD/USD, copper, FTSE mining stocks 8.50am – 9am – French, German, eurozone manufacturing PMI (October, final): currently expected to be revised up to 50.7, down to 51.6 and remain unchanged at 52 respectively. Market to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses 9.30am – UK manufacturing PMI (October): forecast to increase to 51.76, from 51.5, potentially bullish for sterling. Market to watch: GBP crosses 2.45pm – US manufacturing PMI (October, final): this is expected to be revised up to 54 from 53.1. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses |
Tuesday 3rd November3.30am – RBA rate decision: the rate is not expected to change from 2%, but watch the statement for any change in commentary. Market to watch: AUD crosses 9.30am – UK construction PMI (October): forecast to drop back to 57.7 from 59.9. Market to watch: GBP crosses 3pm – US ISM manufacturing PMI (October), factory orders (September): this is forecast to weaken to 49.9 from 50.2, with the employment and new orders components being the key elements to watch. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses |
Wednesday 4th November12.30am – Australia trade balance, retail sales (September): trade surplus expected to narrow to A$3 billion, while retail sales rise 0.42% MoM. Market to watch: AUD crosses 1.45am – China Caixin services PMI (October): expected to rise to 53.2 from 51.4. Market to watch: Asian indices, AUD/USD, copper, FTSE mining stocks 5am – Japan consumer confidence (October): forecast to drop to 40.1 from 40.6. Market to watch: JPY crosses 1.15pm – US ADP employment change (October): this private job survey expects 200,300 jobs to have been created in the month, just up from the previous 200K. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses 1.30pm – US trade balance (September): deficit forecast to narrow to $44.7 billion from $48.3 billion. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses 2.45pm – US services PMI (October, final): activity in this sector forecast to be revised down to 54.4 from 55.1. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses 3.30pm – US crude oil inventories: stockpiles forecast to be 1.1 million, from 3.3 million in the previous week. Market to watch: US light crude |
Thursday 5th November10am – eurozone retail sales (September): expected to rise 0.23% MoM and 2% YoY, from 0% and 2.3% respectively. Market to watch: EUR crosses 12pm – BoE interest rate decision: rates are not expected to change, and as usual the interesting element (e.g. any dissent from the decision) will be seen in the accompanying minutes. Market to watch: GBP crosses 1.30pm – US initial jobless claims: forecast to be 262K for the week, from 260K. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses 3pm – US ISM non- manufacturing PMI (October): service sector activity is expected to rise to 58.7 from 56.9. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses |
Friday 30th October12.30am – Australian unemployment figures (October): ‘jobs day’ kicks off with Australia, where figures are expected to show a rise of 20K in employment, with the rate rising to 6.5% from 6.2%. Market to watch: AUD crosses 9.30am – UK trade balance, industrial and manufacturing production (September): data is expected to show a narrowing of the trade deficit, to £3.1 billion from £3.27 billion. Manufacturing production is expected to fall 1% YoY and industrial production to rise 1.65%. Market to watch: GBP crosses 1.30pm – US non-farm payrolls (October): 152K jobs are forecast to have been created, from 142K last month, while the unemployment rate ticks up to 5.2% from 5.1%. Average hourly earnings forecast to rise by 0.2% from 0% MoM. Market to watch: all major indices, FX pairs 1.30pm – Canadian employment data (October): Canada is expected to see employment increase by 10,200 in the month, from 12,100 last month, while the unemployment rate holds at 7.1%. Market to watch: CAD crosses |
▼ Market Outlook - 26th October
STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK
Market Week Ahead for 26th October 2015
Once again, interest rates and monetary stimulus in Europe appear to be back on the agenda.
Last week the European Central Bank made it clear that they would be reviewing their quantitative easing program in December, triggering a powerful market reaction as investors responded to the prospect of further stimulus, driving equities back towards their former all time highs. This week’s meeting of the Federal Reserve may provoke a similar response on Wednesday, with no change in interest rates anticipated, and interest rate decisions are also expected from Japan and New Zealand.
As equity markets rose following Draghi’s announcement the Euro fell hard, and the British Pound was also dragged down despite excellent UK Retail Sales figures. It’s losses may be further propagated by the UK GDP numbers to be released on Tuesday.
In a further week of US earnings, rising equities were strengthened by strong data from tech giants including Amazon and Google. For a view of what’s ahead this coming week, take a look at the NASDAQ’s Earnings Calendar.
This week’s IPO’s: Adesto Technologies (IOTS), Fuling Global (FORK), MyoKardia (MYOK), and Sole Elite Group (SOLE).
This Week’s Reports & Market Events
This week’s expected major reports, data releases, and other market-moving events are listed below.
For a more detailed look at the stock market week ahead, take a look at our free Economic Calendar powered by ECONODAY. Click here to view our Articles pages for more market analysis and investment ideas.
Monday 26th October3am – China GDP (Q3): expected 6.8%, prior 7%. Market to watch: AUD crosses, High Grade Copper, and mining companies 3pm – US NAHB housing market index (October): expected, 62, prior 62. Market to watch: USD crosses, US indices |
Tuesday 27th October9.30am – UK GDP (Q3, preliminary): forecast to fall to 2.2% YoY from 2.4% and to 0.5% QoQ from 0.7%. Market to watch: GBP crosses 12.30pm – US durable goods orders (September): forecast to drop by 1.5%, from last month’s 2.3% fall (inc. defence & transportation). Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses 1.45pm – US flash services & composite PMI (October): services PMI expected to be 55.56 for the month, just up from 55 in September. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses 2pm – US consumer confidence (October): the Conference Board’s index is expected to fall to 102.5 from 103. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses |
Wednesday 28th October12.30am – Australian CPI (Q3): forecast to be 1.3% from 1.5% YoY, while the QoQ falls to 0.5% from 0.7%. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses 2.30pm – US crude oil inventories: expected to rise by 1.1 million barrels, from 8 million in the previous week. Market to watch: US light crude 6pm – Federal Reserve decision: no change on rates is expected, since there is no press conference with this meeting. Current market expectations suggest there is just a 6% chance of a move at this meeting. However, the statement will be worth reading, as ever. Market to watch: all major indices, currency crosses |
Thursday 29th October8.55am: German unemployment (October): expected to rise by 6000 from 2000 in September, while the unemployment rate holds at 6.4% for the month. Market to watch: DAX, EUR crosses 12.30pm – US GDP (Q3, preliminary), initial jobless claims: GDP is expected to grow by 1.7% over the quarter, from 3.9% in Q2, while jobless claims rise to 263K from 259K last week. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses 1pm – German inflation (October, preliminary): expected to rise to 0.2% YoY from 0%, and to 0.3% MoM from -0.2%. Market to watch: EUR crosses 2pm – US pending home sales (September): forecast to rise by 0.8%, from -1.4% in August. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses 11.30pm – Japanese CPI, unemployment (September): forecast to be 0.1% YoY from 0.2% in August, while the unemployment rate holds steady at 3.4%. Market to watch: Nikkei 225, JPY crosses |
Friday 30th October3am – BoJ meeting: there is speculation that the BoJ might do more in stimulus terms, although the finance minister has recently voiced his scepticism about the impact of such a move. Market to watch: Nikkei 225, JPY crosses 10am – eurozone inflation (October, flash estimate), unemployment (September): this first estimate is expected to see prices rise by 0.1% YoY, while core inflation (which excludes food and fuel) increases by 0.98%. Unemployment is expected to hold steady at 11% in September. Market to watch: EUR crosses 2pm – US Michigan consumer confidence (October, final): expected to rise to 92.3 from October’s previous reading of 87.2. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses |
▼ Market Outlook - 19th October
STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK
Market Week Ahead for 23 – 28 March 2015
The strengthening dollar took a pause last week after the Federal Reserve announcement suggested that Janet Yellen and her advisers were keeping all options open on June’s interest rate hike, leading to renewed vigor in stock indices, commodities and real estate.
For further confirmation, however, many will look towards Tuesday’s US CPI and durable goods figures. If Americans are spending again then the dollar rally may well resume. This picture was largely mirrored in Europe, where the Bank of England also left room for maneuver on interest rate increases, while the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing operation saw a lift in the European stock indices extend globally.
PMI figures are expected to confirm increased purchasing in the manufacturing sector in Europe, although this may have little impact on markets given the revisions in interest rate expectations.
This Week’s Reports & Market Events
This week’s expected major reports, data releases, and other market-moving events are listed below.
For a more detailed look at the stock market week ahead, take a look at our free Economic Calendar powered by ECONODAY. Click here to view the JPMorgan weekly brief for more investment ideas.
Monday 23rd MarchChicago Fed national activity Index (February), 12.30: A rise here would indicate a continuation of the US economic recovery. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses US existing home sales (February), 2pm: This is expected to see sales rise 2.9% in the month, from a 4.5% drop in January. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses |
Tuesday 24th MarchJapan manufacturing PMI (March, preliminary), 1.35am: A rise is forecast, from 51.6 to 52. Market to watch: Nikkei 225, USD/JPY, other yen crosses HSBC China manufacturing PMI (March, preliminary), 1.45am: The index is expected to decline slightly, to 50.4 from 50.7. Market to watch: Asian indices, AUD/USD, USD/JPY, copper, FTSE miners France, Germany, eurozone manufacturing, services and composite PMIs (March, preliminary), 8am – 9am: The QE-induced bounce in Europe is expected to continue, as these are broadly expected to see a small improvement. Market to watch: eurozone indices, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, other EUR crosses UK CPI (February), 9.30am: MoM prices are expected to rise 0.3% from a 0.9% drop, while YoY prices rise 0.1% compared to a previous 0.3%. Market to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, other GBP crosses US CPI (February), 12.30pm: MoM growth is expected to be 0.2%, from a 0.7% drop, while YoY prices fall 0.1%, the same as in January. Market to watch: US dollar crosses US manufacturing PMI (March, preliminary), 1.45pm: This is expected to fall to 54.7 from 55.1. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses US new home sales (February), Richmond Fed manufacturing index (March), 2pm: Home sales are expected to fall 1.3% MoM, from a 0.2% drop, while the Richmond Fed index rises to 2 from last month’s 0. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses |
Wednesday 25th MarchGerman IFO (March), 9am: All three indices in this indicator are expected to show improvement, as the eurozone economy continues to move ahead. Market to watch: DAX, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, other EUR crosses US durable goods orders (February), 12.30pm: Orders are expected to rise 0.5% MoM, from 2.8% last month, while excluding transportation the figure is expected to be 0.5% from 0.3%. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses |
Thursday 26th MarchFrance GDP (Q4, final), 7.45am: Any revisions higher here could provide a short-term boost for EUR/USD. Market to watch: CAC40, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, other EUR crosses UK retail sales (February), 9.30am: Sales are expected to be up 0.4% MoM, from a 0.3% fall, while the YoY figure rises 4.6%, a slowdown from the previous 5.4%. Market to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, other GBP crosses US initial jobless claims, 12.30pm: 295,000 Americans are expected to have filed for benefits, up from 291,000 last week. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses US services PMI (March, preliminary), 1.45pm: This is forecast to tiptoe lower, to 57 from 57.1. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses Japan jobless rate, national CPI (February), Tokyo CPI (March), retail sales (February), 11.50pm: This barrage of Japanese data will be of key importance. The jobless rate is expected to drop to 3.5% from 3.6%, while CPI edges lower to 2.3% YoY from 2.4%. Tokyo CPI is frequently a leading indicator for future national CPI readings, and is expected to hold steady at 2.3% YoY. Retail sales are expected to rise 0.9% MoM, from a 1.3% drop, and fall 1.4% YoY, a slower pace than the previous 2% drop. Market to watch: Nikkei, USD/JPY, other yen crosses |
Friday 27th MarchUS GDP (Q4, third reading), 12.30pm: Revisions are expected here, with the QoQ number being moved down to 0% from 0.1%, while the YoY figure is cut to -0.7% from -0.2%. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses University of Michigan consumer confidence index (March, final), 2pm: Sentiment is expected to be revised higher, to 91.8 from 91.2. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses |
▼ Market Outlook - 12th October
STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK
Market Week Ahead for 23 – 28 March 2015
The strengthening dollar took a pause last week after the Federal Reserve announcement suggested that Janet Yellen and her advisers were keeping all options open on June’s interest rate hike, leading to renewed vigor in stock indices, commodities and real estate.
For further confirmation, however, many will look towards Tuesday’s US CPI and durable goods figures. If Americans are spending again then the dollar rally may well resume. This picture was largely mirrored in Europe, where the Bank of England also left room for maneuver on interest rate increases, while the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing operation saw a lift in the European stock indices extend globally.
PMI figures are expected to confirm increased purchasing in the manufacturing sector in Europe, although this may have little impact on markets given the revisions in interest rate expectations.
This Week’s Reports & Market Events
This week’s expected major reports, data releases, and other market-moving events are listed below.
For a more detailed look at the stock market week ahead, take a look at our free Economic Calendar powered by ECONODAY. Click here to view the JPMorgan weekly brief for more investment ideas.
Monday 23rd MarchChicago Fed national activity Index (February), 12.30: A rise here would indicate a continuation of the US economic recovery. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses US existing home sales (February), 2pm: This is expected to see sales rise 2.9% in the month, from a 4.5% drop in January. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses |
Tuesday 24th MarchJapan manufacturing PMI (March, preliminary), 1.35am: A rise is forecast, from 51.6 to 52. Market to watch: Nikkei 225, USD/JPY, other yen crosses HSBC China manufacturing PMI (March, preliminary), 1.45am: The index is expected to decline slightly, to 50.4 from 50.7. Market to watch: Asian indices, AUD/USD, USD/JPY, copper, FTSE miners France, Germany, eurozone manufacturing, services and composite PMIs (March, preliminary), 8am – 9am: The QE-induced bounce in Europe is expected to continue, as these are broadly expected to see a small improvement. Market to watch: eurozone indices, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, other EUR crosses UK CPI (February), 9.30am: MoM prices are expected to rise 0.3% from a 0.9% drop, while YoY prices rise 0.1% compared to a previous 0.3%. Market to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, other GBP crosses US CPI (February), 12.30pm: MoM growth is expected to be 0.2%, from a 0.7% drop, while YoY prices fall 0.1%, the same as in January. Market to watch: US dollar crosses US manufacturing PMI (March, preliminary), 1.45pm: This is expected to fall to 54.7 from 55.1. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses US new home sales (February), Richmond Fed manufacturing index (March), 2pm: Home sales are expected to fall 1.3% MoM, from a 0.2% drop, while the Richmond Fed index rises to 2 from last month’s 0. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses |
Wednesday 25th MarchGerman IFO (March), 9am: All three indices in this indicator are expected to show improvement, as the eurozone economy continues to move ahead. Market to watch: DAX, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, other EUR crosses US durable goods orders (February), 12.30pm: Orders are expected to rise 0.5% MoM, from 2.8% last month, while excluding transportation the figure is expected to be 0.5% from 0.3%. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses |
Thursday 26th MarchFrance GDP (Q4, final), 7.45am: Any revisions higher here could provide a short-term boost for EUR/USD. Market to watch: CAC40, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, other EUR crosses UK retail sales (February), 9.30am: Sales are expected to be up 0.4% MoM, from a 0.3% fall, while the YoY figure rises 4.6%, a slowdown from the previous 5.4%. Market to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, other GBP crosses US initial jobless claims, 12.30pm: 295,000 Americans are expected to have filed for benefits, up from 291,000 last week. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses US services PMI (March, preliminary), 1.45pm: This is forecast to tiptoe lower, to 57 from 57.1. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses Japan jobless rate, national CPI (February), Tokyo CPI (March), retail sales (February), 11.50pm: This barrage of Japanese data will be of key importance. The jobless rate is expected to drop to 3.5% from 3.6%, while CPI edges lower to 2.3% YoY from 2.4%. Tokyo CPI is frequently a leading indicator for future national CPI readings, and is expected to hold steady at 2.3% YoY. Retail sales are expected to rise 0.9% MoM, from a 1.3% drop, and fall 1.4% YoY, a slower pace than the previous 2% drop. Market to watch: Nikkei, USD/JPY, other yen crosses |
Friday 27th MarchUS GDP (Q4, third reading), 12.30pm: Revisions are expected here, with the QoQ number being moved down to 0% from 0.1%, while the YoY figure is cut to -0.7% from -0.2%. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses University of Michigan consumer confidence index (March, final), 2pm: Sentiment is expected to be revised higher, to 91.8 from 91.2. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses |
▼ Market Outlook - 23rd March
STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK
Market Week Ahead for 23 – 28 March 2015
The strengthening dollar took a pause last week after the Federal Reserve announcement suggested that Janet Yellen and her advisers were keeping all options open on June’s interest rate hike, leading to renewed vigor in stock indices, commodities and real estate.
For further confirmation, however, many will look towards Tuesday’s US CPI and durable goods figures. If Americans are spending again then the dollar rally may well resume. This picture was largely mirrored in Europe, where the Bank of England also left room for maneuver on interest rate increases, while the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing operation saw a lift in the European stock indices extend globally.
PMI figures are expected to confirm increased purchasing in the manufacturing sector in Europe, although this may have little impact on markets given the revisions in interest rate expectations.
This Week’s Reports & Market Events
This week’s expected major reports, data releases, and other market-moving events are listed below.
For a more detailed look at the stock market week ahead, take a look at our free Economic Calendar powered by ECONODAY. Click here to view the JPMorgan weekly brief for more investment ideas.
Monday 23rd MarchChicago Fed national activity Index (February), 12.30: A rise here would indicate a continuation of the US economic recovery. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses US existing home sales (February), 2pm: This is expected to see sales rise 2.9% in the month, from a 4.5% drop in January. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses |
Tuesday 24th MarchJapan manufacturing PMI (March, preliminary), 1.35am: A rise is forecast, from 51.6 to 52. Market to watch: Nikkei 225, USD/JPY, other yen crosses HSBC China manufacturing PMI (March, preliminary), 1.45am: The index is expected to decline slightly, to 50.4 from 50.7. Market to watch: Asian indices, AUD/USD, USD/JPY, copper, FTSE miners France, Germany, eurozone manufacturing, services and composite PMIs (March, preliminary), 8am – 9am: The QE-induced bounce in Europe is expected to continue, as these are broadly expected to see a small improvement. Market to watch: eurozone indices, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, other EUR crosses UK CPI (February), 9.30am: MoM prices are expected to rise 0.3% from a 0.9% drop, while YoY prices rise 0.1% compared to a previous 0.3%. Market to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, other GBP crosses US CPI (February), 12.30pm: MoM growth is expected to be 0.2%, from a 0.7% drop, while YoY prices fall 0.1%, the same as in January. Market to watch: US dollar crosses US manufacturing PMI (March, preliminary), 1.45pm: This is expected to fall to 54.7 from 55.1. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses US new home sales (February), Richmond Fed manufacturing index (March), 2pm: Home sales are expected to fall 1.3% MoM, from a 0.2% drop, while the Richmond Fed index rises to 2 from last month’s 0. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses |
Wednesday 25th MarchGerman IFO (March), 9am: All three indices in this indicator are expected to show improvement, as the eurozone economy continues to move ahead. Market to watch: DAX, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, other EUR crosses US durable goods orders (February), 12.30pm: Orders are expected to rise 0.5% MoM, from 2.8% last month, while excluding transportation the figure is expected to be 0.5% from 0.3%. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses |
Thursday 26th MarchFrance GDP (Q4, final), 7.45am: Any revisions higher here could provide a short-term boost for EUR/USD. Market to watch: CAC40, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, other EUR crosses UK retail sales (February), 9.30am: Sales are expected to be up 0.4% MoM, from a 0.3% fall, while the YoY figure rises 4.6%, a slowdown from the previous 5.4%. Market to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, other GBP crosses US initial jobless claims, 12.30pm: 295,000 Americans are expected to have filed for benefits, up from 291,000 last week. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses US services PMI (March, preliminary), 1.45pm: This is forecast to tiptoe lower, to 57 from 57.1. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses Japan jobless rate, national CPI (February), Tokyo CPI (March), retail sales (February), 11.50pm: This barrage of Japanese data will be of key importance. The jobless rate is expected to drop to 3.5% from 3.6%, while CPI edges lower to 2.3% YoY from 2.4%. Tokyo CPI is frequently a leading indicator for future national CPI readings, and is expected to hold steady at 2.3% YoY. Retail sales are expected to rise 0.9% MoM, from a 1.3% drop, and fall 1.4% YoY, a slower pace than the previous 2% drop. Market to watch: Nikkei, USD/JPY, other yen crosses |
Friday 27th MarchUS GDP (Q4, third reading), 12.30pm: Revisions are expected here, with the QoQ number being moved down to 0% from 0.1%, while the YoY figure is cut to -0.7% from -0.2%. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses University of Michigan consumer confidence index (March, final), 2pm: Sentiment is expected to be revised higher, to 91.8 from 91.2. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses |
▼ Market Outlook - 9th March
STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK
Market Week Ahead for 9 – 13 March 2015
With the ECB meeting and the non-farm payrolls behind us, financial markets may face a difficult time in the week ahead, and with little positive economic news anticipated to drive bullish sentiment, there is a possibility of increased volatility.
The week is generally fairly light in terms of news announcements, with the only significant data expected being US retail sales on Thursday, and Chinese inflation figures on Tuesday.
While European stock indexes including the FTSE 1OO have recently traded at new highs, and there are a number of announcements expected from UK companies including Morrisons and Prudential in the coming week, US markets are beginning to look overbought. Traders should be aware that whatever the long term outlook, a correction may now be unfolding.
Following the recent jobs report, which was considered strong despite weaker growth in wages, market consensus on the expected interest rate rise is that June is a likely time to expect the Federal Reserve to hike rates. With the dollar growing in strength this is a further factor that may limit further advances in stock markets.
This Week’s Reports & Market Events
This week’s expected major reports, data releases, and other market-moving events are listed below.
For a more detailed look at the stock market week ahead, take a look at our free Economic Calendar powered by ECONODAY.
Monday 9th MarchG7 meeting: Although not crucial for market sentiment, the meeting is worth keeping an eye on for any signs that there may be more sanctions against Russia. |
Tuesday 10th MarchChinese CPI (February), 1.30am: This is expected to see price growth of 1% YoY, up from 0.8% in January. Market to watch: Asian indices, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, copper, FTSE mining stocks. US JOLTS numbers (January), 2pm: This indicator measures the number of new job openings and the rate of Americans leaving their jobs to start new ones. Both these figures tend to rise during periods of economic improvement. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses. |
Wednesday 11th MarchChina industrial production, retail sales (February), 5.30am: These are expected to show growth of 6.15% and 11.35% respectively, both down slightly on the preceding month. Market to watch: Asian indices, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, copper, FTSE mining stocks. UK industrial and manufacturing production (January), 9.30am: Both these figures are expected to show an improvement for the month, at 0.57% and 2.95% respectively. Market to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP US crude oil inventories, 2.30pm: US stocks of oil are expected to fall dramatically this week, down to 1.3 million barrels from 10.3 million in the preceding week, which would likely be bullish for WTI. Market to watch: US light crude. |
Thursday 12th MarchAustralian employment data (February), 12.30am: The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 6.3% from 6.4%, while 18,400 jobs are added in the month. Market to watch: S&P/ASX 200, AUD/USD, other AUD crosses. US retail sales (February), initial jobless claims, 12.30pm: Headline retail sales are expected to rise by 0.5% MoM, from a drop of 0.8% in January, while jobless claims are expected to be 299K for the past week, down from 302K a week earlier. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses. |
Friday 13th MarchCanadian employment data (February), 12.30pm: The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 6.6%, while 18,200 jobs are created in the month, from 35,400 in January. Market to watch: USD/CAD University of Michigan consumer confidence (March, preliminary), 2pm: The improvement in this index is forecast to continue, hitting 96 for the month from February’s final reading of 95.4. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses. |